GOP Insider Update

The Kerry Spot has another conversation with a GOP insider:

I heard, once again, from an individual “familiar with internal discussions within the Bush campaign.” This information is what big cheeses in GOP circles are saying to middle cheeses in GOP circles.

The big picture is, Bush has the momentum and is playing offense, while Kerry is on the defensive going into Election Day. A key panic button moment for Kerry campaign came on Friday, when the candidate lectured the American people to “wake up.”

The 72-hour Get-Out-The-Vote Operation has been launched. Starting Friday and continuing through Tuesday, 150,000 volunteers in the most competitive states are mobilized and will contact 18 million voters to get the President’s supporters to the polls.

This unprecedented voter turnout operation is built to negate the traditional advantage that Democrats enjoyed on turnout during the 1990s with unions and African-American churches.

The Bush team believes the personal touch is going to make a big difference. The Bush-Cheney ‘04 turnout effort will be driven by volunteers, acting on their personal beliefs and enthusiasm for this President. The Kerry campaign has turned over their grassroots operation to 527 organizations that are relying on paid employees who do not know the voters they are contacting. Will a voter be more persuaded by contact from a neighbor or contact from a stranger who is being paid to do it?

The lack of commentary yesterday about Ohio should not be interpreted as a lack of good news. The Bush team is pleased with the latest poll by the Cleveland Plain Dealer shows the President up by three points (pre-Arnie sample), and volunteers will contact over 1.2 million voters.

Two-thirds of the president’s time is spent campaigning in states that Al Gore won in 2000, and the President leads the polls in Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico — all blue states set to turn red. Hawaii, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania are all close, too close for Kerry’s comfort.

Maybe this is spin, and maybe this is happy talk. But if something is going wrong - like some red state looks like it’s going to flip - then I suspect the big cheeses would have an incentive to warn the middle cheeses and prepare them for the disappointment. Something along the lines of “Yes New Hampshire looks shaky, but we can afford to lose it, it’s only four electoral votes.” [That’s my speculation on the Granite State, not anything I’ve heard from this GOP insider.]