Zogby Poll - All Knowing, or All Nothing

The Zogby Poll is often looked to by political experts as the "holy grail" of polling, mainly due to the fact that Zogby nailed the 2000 election. However, the same folks that lionize Zogby rarely mention the fact that he was way off in the 2002 midterm elections.

In the past two days there have been interviews with Zogby in which he has predicted a win by Bush, and a win by Kerry. Is Zogby trying to cover all bases, or is he in effect admitting that he doesn't really know what's going to happen.

The fact is, the problem with most polling is the turnout models that they are using may be way off. That was certainly the case in 2002 when the Republican turnout machine was significantly ramped up from 2000, and given the craziness going on this year, turnout could be very different from what all the polls think is going to happen.

Bottom line - we could see a close race, or a blowout (either way) on Tuesday. I don't think anyone really knows.