The Battle of New Orleans

New Orleans is in for a fight unlike anything they've ever experience in history. Earlier today I remarked that the worst case scenario for the city is a major hurricane with the eye passing just west of town. The northeast quadrant of the story always has the worst winds and storm surge.

However, my knowledge of the geography of New Orleans wasn't very good, and although my earlier statement would be true for any city right on the gulf coast, New Orleans is actually inland a bit and sits on the south side of Lake Pontchartrain. Because of the city's location in relation to the lake, the worst case scenario is actually an eye passage just east of the city, and that looks like that's just what's going to happen.

With the counter-clockwise rotation of the winds around the eye, during the early part of the storm's approach great volumes of water will be blown into the lake by the high winds. As the storm continues to the north, those winds will shift around and will begin blowing that water directly into New Orleans. There's high likelihood that the levees will be breached and the city will be under many feet of water.

The local emergency manager was asked what the people who remained in the French Quarter should do at this late hour. His response was scary. He said (and I paraphrase) "make sure you can get up to the 2nd or 3rd floor, and if that's not enough, be sure you have a way to cut a hole so you can climb up on the roof". He's expecting a whole lot of water in that historic area.

And once the storm passes, things will be rough for a long, long time. Just take a look at this estimate of the aftermath of just this type of storm that was published in 2002:

But just getting into the city will be a problem for rescuers. Approaches by road may be washed out.

Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem, corps officials say.

A variety of creatures -- rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs -- will be searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.

Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely, said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans.

New Orleans would face the future with most of its housing stock and historic structures destroyed. Hotels, office buildings and infrastructure would be heavily damaged. Tens of thousands of people would be dead and many survivors homeless and shellshocked. Rebuilding would be a formidable challenge even with a generous federal aid package.

Pray for those folks.