Interesting Primary in the OC

It looks like we'll have a primary battle in the race to replace Chris Cox in Congress (from Political Diary):

Orange County, the heart of conservatism in California, will have a rip-roaring primary in October to replace retired Congressman Chris Cox, who left to run the Securities & Exchange Commission. The race will have national implications because it will represent the latest attempt by anti-immigration forces to prove their stance can move voters and win elections.

Jim Gilchrist, a retired CPA who is best known for founding the Minuteman Project that used volunteers to guard the Arizona-Mexico border, is entering the race. He has recruited former American Conservative Union executive director Chuck Muth and former Alan Keyes aide Mary Parker-Lewis as advisors. He will no doubt be able to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars in small donations through direct mail from anti-immigration activists.

For his campaign, Mr. Gilchrist plans to take a new tack, shifting away from his emphasis on border-watching to demanding more aggressive prosecution of anyone -- especially employers -- who profits from what he calls "the illegal alien slave labor trade." He can count on rabble-rousing local talk show hosts to amplify his message. Watch for Fox News and Lou Dobbs of CNN to give the race extensive coverage.

That sits fine with State Senator John Campbell, the front-runner for the seat. A favorite of the business community, Mr. Campbell has similar views to the retiring Mr. Cox and has bagged a rare primary endorsement from Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. His major concern is that Mr. Gilchrist could split the conservative vote enough to allow former Assemblywoman Marilyn Brewer, a moderate who has the endorsement of Senator John McCain, to sneak past him. Whichever Republican places first in the primary is a prohibitive favorite in the district.

I don't really think it will be a rip-roaring as John Fund describes. John Campbell is very well thought of in Orange County and should be a prohibitive favorite to win. He not only has Arnold's endorsement (which may be of dubious value given Arnold's current poll ratings), but will be heavily promoted by local and national talk radio where he's been a frequent guest.

Gilchrist will probably be plagued with protests and vandalism of his campaign signs by the pro-illegal immigrant crowd. Every time he shows up somewhere there's usually a nasty demonstration and confrontations outside the venue. I think he'll have a hard time getting his message out. One issue candidates don't usually do that well. I'm also not sure that his new advisor's connection to Alan Keyes will do him much good either.

I don't even know who Marilyn Brewer is (and I've lived in Orange County all my life), so she's going to have some serious name recognition work to do before she can be considered a player. I doubt if McCain's endorsement will mean that much here.

Unfortunately, I won't get to vote in the primary since I'm not in that district, but it should be a fun fight to watch.