The Bird Flu Panic is Beginning

The NY Times has a piece today on the White House projections should a new flu pandemic sweep the world:

A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

We haven't had a flu pandemic since 1918, and that was a time when folks tended to stay closer to home. There was no air travel and the highway system and cars of that day tended to confine people to their local area. With the masses of people traveling long distances today, it's safe to assume that once a pandemic starts, it would spread worldwide very quickly.

If they can identify the flu quick enough, it will probably be possible to create a vaccine for it, though production of the quantities needed in the short time they may have to respond will be very difficult.

Unfortunately the world is due for one of these big viral outbreaks. Let's hope the folks in charge are ready for it when it comes.