Is There a Pandemic on the Horizon?

Roger Highfield has a piece in the Daily Telegraph that warns that a flu pandemic is long overdue, and could be worse than the 1918 outbreak:

Four women sat down to play bridge one evening. Three were dead by the morning. A commuter began to cough. He never made it home. One doctor said it was "the most vicious type of pneumonia that has ever been seen".

Public health departments in America distributed gauze masks as society crumbled. Towns demanded a signed health certificate before strangers could enter. Besides the lack of nurses, doctors and supplies, there was a shortage of coffins, morticians and grave-diggers. Funerals were limited to 15 minutes.

These are eyewitness accounts from 1918, when the world experienced the worst infectious disease in recorded history. Spanish flu is thought to have killed about 50 million people. Such an influenza pandemic is what scientists call a low-probability, high-impact risk.

Politicians can ignore it, and may even get away with it. But when a pandemic eventually strikes, and history suggests that one is long overdue, the consequences could be devastating.

There is great concern over the current bird flu outbreak and the likelihood that it will mutate to humans. Read the whole article. I don't think the world is anywhere near ready for this.