Dire Warnings from U.S. Health Official

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has some rather discouraging words about the coming bird flu problem (from ABC News):

In a remarkable speech over the weekend, Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt recommended that Americans start storing canned tuna and powdered milk under their beds as the prospect of a deadly bird flu outbreak approaches the United States.

Ready or not, here it comes.

It is being spread much faster than first predicted from one wild flock of birds to another, an airborne delivery system that no government can stop.

"There's no way you can protect the United States by building a big cage around it and preventing wild birds from flying in and out," U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Michael Johanns said.

U.S. spy satellites are tracking the infected flocks, which started in Asia and are now heading north to Siberia and Alaska, where they will soon mingle with flocks from the North American flyways.

"What we're watching in real time is evolution," said Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. "And it's a biological process, and it is, by definition, unpredictable."

And how about this prediction of what could happen if a human-spread version were to hit the U.S.:

The bird flu virus, to date, has rarely been transmitted to humans. There have been lots of dead birds on three continents, but so far, fewer than 100 reported human deaths. Compare that to more than 30,000 deaths each year in the United States from seasonal flu.

Should that change, the spread could be rapid.

ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu.

That, of course, is a worst-case scenario -- but one that cannot be completely discounted.

The current bird flu strain has been around for at least 10 years and has taken surprising twists and turns -- not the least of which is that it's now showing up in cats in Europe, where officials are advising owners to bring their cats inside. It's advice that might soon have to be considered here.

Our health care system definately isn't ready for something like that.