Would Overturning Roe Hurt the GOP?

Mort Kondracke writes a piece today that argues that the overturning of Roe v. Wade would be a disaster for Republicans:

The Supreme Court is highly unlikely to take South Dakota's bait and overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion decision. And for that, Republicans should thank their lucky stars.

But South Dakota's "direct frontal assault" on Roe - to use Gov. Michael Rounds' (R) description - may well elevate abortion to the top of the nation's political agenda for the 2008 presidential election, or even earlier if President Bush gets the opportunity to nominate another Supreme Court justice.

The issue could be especially problematic for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), currently the GOP favorite among moderates and the media. On CBS' "The Early Show" on Jan. 25, McCain said, "I've never agreed with Roe v. Wade" and added that "it wouldn't bother me any" if it were overturned.

At a minimum, South Dakota gives the pro-choice movement a graphic example of what life might be like in a large swath of America if Roe were ever overturned.

South Dakota has just one abortion clinic, in Sioux Falls, open only one day a week. No doctor from the state dares perform an abortion, so outsiders fly in, usually from Minnesota. Women have to travel up to 350 miles to get an abortion. And on top of such obstacles, the state has now passed a law to ban the procedure entirely, including in cases of rape and incest, except to save a mother's life. The law is likely to be challenged in court before it can take effect.

If Roe were overturned - wiping away 30-plus years of national legal protection for the procedure and unleashing epic battles at the state level - it could affect the GOP in much the same way as the Democratic Party's embrace of civil rights in the 1960s, a move that caused the party to lose the South.

Mort's a smart guy, but I disagree wholeheartedly that overturning Roe would be an election killer for the GOP. Why? Because most Americans, whether they believe in legal abortion or not, are not touched by abortion in their everyday lives. They don't spend any significant amount of time thinking about it, and they haven't had an abortion and don't know anyone who has. And I believe that many moderates, if faced with the choice of getting an abortion or not, would be more likely not to have the abortion regardless of their political beliefs on the issue.

It's a myth that overturning Roe would result in the elimination of abortion. Granted, some states, and maybe quite a few, would vote it out of existence in their states, but there would be plenty of places women could go if they were determined to kill their child. It's just about guaranteed that the blue states would keep abortion legal, and quite possibly many of the red states.

Abortion never should have been federalized in the first place. The appropriate place for abortion law is in the individual states, and overturning Roe will correct this longstanding problem and return control to local legislatures where it belongs. I doubt if there would be any significant effect on electoral politics once people realized that abortion was still available, even if a little less convenient.