Barone on the House Races This Fall

Michael Barone, who probably knows more about the electorate of this country right down the precinct level, has a piece on his thoughts regarding the House elections this Fall. Barone thinks that the GOP will retain control of the House, despite the best efforts of the Dems:

Will Democrats win control of the House in November? It's a question lots of people have been asking in Washington and around the country these days. It seems possible, certainly. Democrats only have to make a net gain of 15 seats to win a majority. But it's also true that, with the single and large exception of 1994, neither party has made a net gain of more than 10 House seats over the last 20 years.

I think there are two plausible hypotheses about how House elections work. If Hypothesis One applies, Democrats have a good chance at gaining a majority. If Hypothese Two applies, they don't.

Barone goes on to explain each hypothesis. Read the details here.