California 50 Will Likely Stay Republican

The blog at RealClearPolitics.com has a good analysis of yesterday's primary election in California's 50th Congressional District, the former home of disgraced congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham. The Dems had high hopes of stealing that one away, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen:

Last night Democratic candidate Francine Busby failed to reach the 50% + 1 mark in her quest to take the seat formerly held by Republican Duke Cunningham. She finished in the low- to mid-40's.

Judging by the early reports on the election, the media is going to spin this as a good development for the Democrats in their quest to take the House. I could not disagree more.

The election will go to a June runoff, but this seems to me to have been the Democrats' only real chance at this seat. GOP candidates pulled in a majority of the vote -- and it is hard to imagine that not happening in June.

The Democrats had everything going for them in this election. They had a corrupt felon-incumbent, they had low turnout, they had a well-financed challenger, and they had a divided Republican field. They had a district that has, in the last 10 years, skewed Republican less and less. And they only managed to get about 8% more of the vote when they needed 14% more. In 2004, Busby pulled in 36%. This time around she won 43.9%.

This is roughly equal to how both Kerry and Gore did in the district in the last 6 years -- and roughly what you would expect a Republican-leaning district to do with an open seat election: stay Republican by a slightly smaller margin than when the incumbent is running.

There is no other way to understand this but as a loss for the Democrats.

Of course, it won't be portrayed that way in the media, as they'll be sure to play up the fact that a Dem got the most votes. But with the GOP vote split among several good candidates, any advantage the Dem had in this race will be gone in the runoff when only one Republican will face her. Her opponent will be former congressman Brian Bilbray, which makes her prospects even more dim. She's probably gotten the most votes she'll ever get in this district, which means it will remain in GOP hands.

UPDATE: Political Diary has more on the upcoming runoff:

On a brighter note for Republicans, Ms. Busby is now the underdog in a June runoff against former GOP Congressman Brian Bilbray, who edged out 13 other GOP candidates for a chance to compete one-on-one with the Democrat. Mr. Bilbray is the favorite in part because his moderate social views on issues such as abortion make it difficult for Democrats to portray him as an extremist. During his years representing a neighboring district from 1995 to 2001, he routinely earned American Conservative Union scores in the 60% range. By way of contrast, fellow Republican Darrell Issa normally gets an ACU rating of over 90%.

Mr. Bilbray topped the GOP field with only 15% of the vote, but he is already crediting his first-place showing to voter support for his efforts to curb illegal immigration. The election came only two days after San Diego saw the largest demonstration in its history for immigrant rights. Mr. Bilbray served as a lobbyist for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, which advocates strict curbs on both legal and illegal immigration, after he left Congress. Look for him to become a California ally of Rep. Tom Tancredo, the Colorado Republican who has made immigration his signature issue.

It looks like the Dems will soon be declaring another "almost victory".