Is Chafee Worth It?

Political Diary reports today on some of the primary shenanigans being pulled by Sen. Lincoln Chafee (RINO-RI) in his effort to defeat a conservative challenger:

The latest polls show Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee leading Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey, his conservative primary challenger. But the moderate Senator sure isn't acting as if he has a lead.

Stephanie Chafee, the senator's wife, has sent out an email urging registered Democrats to disaffiliate from their party so that they can vote for her husband in the GOP primary. She says that keeping him in office will "allow him to work with colleagues in a bipartisan manner to ensure that our state receives its fair share of federal funding, to expand access to healthcare and education, and to safeguard our beautiful forests and coastlines."

Her email goes so far as include a copy of a voter registration card, which would enable a voter to leave the Democratic Party and vote for her husband in the GOP primary. Mr. Laffey's campaign views the stratagem as a sign that the Chafee campaign is unwilling to actually have Republicans judge Mr. Chafee's adherence to Republican values. Indeed, Mr. Chafee has reason to be nervous. There are examples of conservative primary challengers knocking off incumbent GOP Senators despite trailing in the polls all the way to Election Day, among them Al D'Amato's defeat of Jacob Javits in New York in 1980 and Sam Brownback's victory over Kansas Senator Sheila Frahm in 1996.

Mr. Chafee claims that one reason Republicans should renominate him is that he can hold the seat in November. His aides point out that Mr. Laffey loses a potential matchup against Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse by 51% to 32% in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. What they neglect to mention is that even as an incumbent, Mr. Chafee can't break 50% against Mr. Whitehouse. He leads in a potential matchup by only 44% to 41%.

If he's going to vote with the Dems, oppose conservative judges, oppose tax cuts, and everything else he does in opposition to the GOP, why bother reelecting him? If Laffey beats him but loses in November, the GOP will probably still hold the majority, but if he wins, the conservatives get a big gain in the Senate.

UPDATE: Today's Senate vote on the $70 billion budget cut bill (from the WaPo):

Just three Republicans _ Olympia J. Snowe of Maine, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and George Voinovich of Ohio _ voted against the bill.