Rove's New Strategy for '06

Howard Feinman has a piece today on what he sees as Karl Rove's election strategy for the '06 midterms:

This fall’s election season is going to make the past three look like episodes of “Barney.”

The conventional notion here is that Democrats want to “nationalize” the 2006 elections — dwelling on broad themes (that is, the failures of the Bush Administration) — while the Republicans will try to “localize” them as individual contests that have nothing to do with, ahem, the goings on in the capital.

That was before the GOP situation got so desperate. The way I read the recent moves of Karl Rove & Co., they are preparing to wage war the only way open to them: not by touting George Bush, Lord knows, but by waging a national campaign to paint a nightmarish picture of what a Democratic Congress would look like, and to portray that possibility, in turn, as prelude to the even more nightmarish scenario: the return of a Democrat (Hillary) to the White House.

Rather than defend Bush, Rove will seek to rally the Republicans’ conservative grassroots by painting Democrats as the party of tax increases, gay marriage, secularism and military weakness. That’s where the national message money is going to be spent.

Feinman has the nightmare scenario correct, though I think the President will actually play a much bigger role in the election than Feinman thinks he will. The President isn't going to sit in the White House and wait to see what happens. He'll be out there trying to influence whichever races he thinks he can make a positive impact, and he can be a pretty powerful force on the campaign trail.

And don't forget - it's only May. Six months is a lifetime in politics and many of the problems the GOP has today could be radically changed by November. If the best the Dems have is "vote for us because we hate Bush", they shouldn't bother packing up the leadership offices because they're not going anywhere. They're going to have to give people reasons to vote FOR them, and not just AGAINST Bush. That won't be such an easy task for a party so devoid of creative ideas.

This summer will be one of constant positioning by both parties. I'm expecting the Congressional GOP to give the Dems plenty of things to vote against, futher reinforcing the image the nightmare scenario invokes. There will also be lots of judges to confirm, thus giving hours of TV exposure to the dummies that make up the Dem part of the Senate Judiciary Committee. That, my friends, is pure gold for the GOP.

The Dems, of course, will try and make every little thing Bush and the GOP's fault, and every Dem sound byte will be required to include the term "culture of corruption". After you've heard it, oh a thousand times or so, it sort of loses its impact.

Let the games begin!