Bilbray Leading in CA 50th

The final poll is in before the special election in the California 50th Congressional District, and Republican Brian Bilbray has pulled ahead:

In the final poll before this week's special election in California's 50th congressional district, Survey USA finds Brian Bilbray (R) with a two point lead over Francine Busby (D), 47% to 45%.

The previous poll had both candidates tied. This poll shows a big swing in the independent vote towards Bilbray.

Key factor: "Bilbray leads by 14 points among voters age 65 plus; Busby leads by 20 points among voters younger than 35. The two candidates are effectively tied among voters 35 to 64. Should younger voters, historically unreliable, vote in unexpectedly large numbers: advantage Busby. Should older voters vote in disproportionately large numbers: advantage Bilbray.

"Chuck Todd: "Busby really stepped in it with her 'papers' comment regarding Latino voters. BTW, apparently having someone trail a candidate with a video recorder isn't a waste of time after all."

I don't think the full effect of Busby's comments were reflected in this poll. It's been a big story all weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a much bigger move toward Bilbray as a result. She might have very effectively ended her own chances for election, and ended any hopes that the Dems might ever take this seat.