(21 August 2006) What a difference a year makes. After the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, the 2006 season is now below normal.
As of yesterday (20 August) three tropical storms will have formed in the Atlantic in an "average" year, which is the same number that have formed this year so far. Because of multi-year averaging, that means that today (August 21) slightly more than three storms would have formed, making this year (statistically speaking) just below normal.
In the hurricane category, this year is decidedly below normal, with no hurricanes so far, while by this date 1.5 hurricanes have formed in the average of years 1944 though 2005.
Of course, things can turn around quickly, but based on current sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, hurricane formation is not favorable. Most of the areas where hurricanes develop and grow are showing average to below average temperatures, and that takes a lot of the punch out of developing systems.
The "experts" have been telling us since the season started on June 1 that after last year's huge number of storms, this year was likely to be even worse. It hasn't happened so far.
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