Sunday, the day before the cease fire is to take effect, was marked by over 250 rockets fired by Hezbo into Israel, and multiple air raids by Israel into Lebanon. Sounds like a great foundation for a cease fire.
I don't know what the Israelis are thinking agreeing to the UN resolution. Hezbo has refused to disarm (a requirement of the agreement), the Lebanese government isn't strong enough to disarm Hezbo, the French who are supposed to provide some of the troops in the security force have already announced that they don't see disarming Hezbo as part of their duties, and nowhere in this agreement is there anything that will return the missing Israeli soldiers. It was the kidnapping of these soldiers that got this whole thing started a month ago.
Instead Hezbo will be looking for another 100 for 1 type prisoner swap, which is what they wanted in the first place, and they will retain their arms and be able to resupply while the Israelis stand down. It's absolutely foolish for the Israelis to accept this outcome.
I'm writing this about 15 minutes before the cease fire is scheduled to go into effect (9:45 Sunday night). My guess is that by the time I get up for work tomorrow (about 6am Monday morning), the cease fire will already have been broken, and Israel will have been blamed. We'll see.
Monday, August 14, 2006
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