The End of the Race, the Beginning of the Chase

If you’re a NASCAR fan, this is a big weekend for you. If you’re not, this is a good time to become one because this Saturday night’s race in Richmond, VA will set the stage for the “Chase to the Championship”, the final 10 races that will determine the series champ. This week’s race is the 26th race of the 2006 series, and only the top ten in points at the end of this race will be able to compete for the championship.

As it stands today, there are 11 drivers in contention for the top 10 spots. Jimmy Johnson and Matt Kenseth have locked in a spot in the Chase, and a couple of others are nearly locked in, but there could be significant movement among the remaining positions.

This year’s Chase looks very different from last year. In 2005 two of the series stars, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. missed the Chase. Roger Penske had both of his cars in, Richard Childress has never had any of his three cars in, and Jack Rousch had all five of his cars in the finals.

In 2006 Gordon and Earnhardt Jr. look pretty good to make it in, neither Penske car will be in the top 10, Childress will likely have one and possibly two cars in, and Rousch will have at most two cars in the finals (and possibly only one depending on Saturday night). Ray Evernham racing got one of their cars in the Chase at the last minute the last two years, and will have to pull off a big night again this year to get a car in.

There are certain finishing scenarios that will guarantee a driver makes the Chase. For the current position 3-10 drivers, here’s where they can finish and guarantee a spot regardless of what anyone else does:

Kevin Harvick – 40th
Jeff Gordon – 25th
Kyle Busch – 22nd
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 16th
Denny Hamlin – 16th
Tony Stewart – 7th
Mark Martin – 4th
Jeff Burton – 4th

Lurking in 11th position is Kasey Kahne, the driver with the most wins on the current season – five. He’s 30 points behind 10th place Mark Martin.

Why isn’t he in the top ten with all those wins? The current points system rewards consistency more than it does wins (that might change next year) and Kahne has had a hero or zero type of year. He’s got to finish a number of spots ahead of Martin – maybe as many as 10 if he doesn’t lead a lap or win the race – to knock Martin out of tenth. I wouldn’t want to see him coming up in my rear view mirror on Saturday night.

There are a couple of interesting things that could happen on Saturday:

• Reigning champ Tony Stewart could be knocked out of the Chase if he wrecks or breaks down early in the going. UPDATE - TONY HAS A BAD NIGHT AND DROPS OUT OF THE CHASE.
• Mark Martin will be a sentimental favorite since this is his final year (we think) in Nextel Cup, and he’s the closest one to elimination.
• As mentioned above, the driver with the most wins in the series this year, Kasey Kahne, could be eliminated from contending for the championship.
• Rookie Denny Hamlin looks pretty good to make the finals, and could become the first rookie ever to win the championship.

Television coverage of the race will begin at 7pm Eastern (4pm on the Holy Coast) on TNT. It will be worth watching.