What's Really Going On With the Midterms?

There are two articles which seem to be telling us different things about the midterm election. First we have the NY Times claiming that the Senate is now in play, mainly because of George Allen's N-word and "macaca" problems and because of problems with the GOP candidate in Tennessee. Remember the source - the NY Times. Given their obvious desire to undermine the Bush Administration and Republicans, I have to take anything they say with a lot of scepticism.

The timing of this story, just like the timing of the NIE leak, is suspicious. At a time when polls are moving back in Bush's direction, suddenly we get this news. Hmmmm...

On the other hand, Drudge is reporting that the Dems may be fudging a lot of polls to make their candidates look better than they're really performing.

Democratic pollsters are pushing lots of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well. If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats.

Obviously, that’s unlikely. Extremely unlikely, writes Stuart Rothenberg in fresh editions of ROLL CALL.

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Rothenberg: "Count me as skeptical, and not only because most of these poll memos contain the dreaded “and when voters were read short descriptions about the candidates” second ballot that allegedly measures a challenger’s fundamental strength. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride..."

"Well, I’ve seen that message, in one way or another, in almost every Democratic polling memo that comes across my desk. They almost always cite Bush’s standing. They almost all argue that voters want change or are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.

"And they are right, but only so far."

I still think that the Dems are in for a disappointing night in November. They may gain some seats, but I don't think we'll see a change in the majority in either house.