Are Polls Starting to Trend Back Toward the GOP?

The "Blogging Caesar" at ElectionProjection.com has an update on the current situation in the House and Senate (h/t Powerline):

"A whole lot of nothing going on." Despite twenty race rating changes this week, the top line in the governorships and both chambers of Congress remains unchanged from last week. I said last week that the GOP had hit bottom. So far, I think the polls are bearing that out. On Tuesday, Minnesota CD-6 went blue. But on Friday, that was counteracted by Connecticut CD-2 turning back to red. Overall, the polls toward the end of this week - excepting some bizarre New York polls from Constituent Dynamics - have begun to take on a slightly rosier hue.

On the House side, did anyone see that Selzer & Co. poll from Indiana CD-7? When I saw the GOP candidate ahead by 3 points, my heart sank a bit thinking that another safe GOP seat was getting competitive. Then I realized that IN-7 is a Democratic seat. Well, lo and behold! I think we will see this trend of more GOP-favorable polls continue over the last 17 days. By the way, let me confirm once again that I stand by all three of the edicts I decreed earlier this year.

The GOP will hold the House - April 24
The GOP will hold the Senate - April 28
Lieberman will win in Connecticut - August 10

In the Senate, though not much happened last week, look for polls this week in Tennessee and Missouri to show Corker and Talent with small leads, respectively. And look for Allen's lead to grow some in Virginia next week as well. The huge financial advantage enjoyed by several GOP senate candidates should start to pay dividends in some of these close races. I think the chances of the Democrats taking the Senate are very, very slim.

Overall, it is clear to me that the GOP has indeed turned the corner - if it was ever really down in the first place. My only real worry at this point is another "October surprise."

It sounds like Scott is feeling much the same way that Barron's is regarding the fund raising superiority of the GOP and how it will come to play in the closing days.

Here's another cautionary quote from a Dem pollster who may be seeing things he doesn't like (h/t Political Wire):

"There's a big anti-Republican wave out there. But that wave will crash up against a very stable political structure, so we won't be sure of the exact scope of Democratic gains until election night. We really don't yet know which is ultimately more important -- the size of the wave or the stability of the structure."

-- Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, quoted by Pollster.com.

Stay tuned.