Barone On a Democratic House

Michael Barone discusses the possibility of a Democratic House and the challenges that will face the new Speaker:

It seems unlikely that Democrats will win more seats than Republicans now have, which means that a Speaker Nancy Pelosi will face the tough challenge of holding enough of her caucus together to produce the 218 votes needed for a majority on seriously contested legislation. She and other Democrats have not had much practice at this, but neither did Republicans back in 1994.

Pelosi's task will be complicated by bad blood among the leadership (as Gingrich's was); she is on bad terms with the current minority whip, Steny Hoyer, and she seems to have encouraged her ally John Murtha to declare he'd challenge Hoyer for the majority leadership. Also, there are more moderates in the Democratic Caucus (and likely to be more if they win the 15 seats they need for control) than in Republican ranks today. ...

On domestic policy, a Democratic House will be able to obstruct but not to impose its own will. Rangel will surely see to it that no extensions of Bush tax cuts come out of Ways and Means, which means tax increases in outyears. Budget levels will be subject to fierce negotiations, as they were in the Clinton-Gingrich years. John Dingell as chairman of Energy and Commerce will deploy his considerable skills on regulatory issues, but these do not always split on party lines. The smart and canny Henry Waxman, as chairman of Government Reform, will undoubtedly launch a series of newsworthy investigations moments after being sworn in on Jan. 3.

John Conyers, slated to be chairman of Judiciary, has been muting his earlier calls for the impeachment of Bush, but he can be expected to move in that direction when he takes the gavel. There are few moderate Democrats on Judiciary, and Conyers could conceivably mobilize a majority to bring an impeachment resolution to the floor. Yet a Democratic Judiciary Committee is likely to be on Bush's side on immigration, and could produce a guestworker and legalization bill.

In a related story, a Dem House will effectively turn much of the leadership over to the State of New York which will supply many of the key committee chairmen. We'll be able to look forward to a San Francisco liberal running the House, while New York liberals run the major committees. Not a pretty sight.