Big Bang May Not Have Been Nuke After All

Bill Gertz, who has military contacts that are the envy of every other reporter, says that the big bang in North Korea may not have been a nuke after all:

U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.

U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.

"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.

"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."

I think the NoKos are going to hope the world finds out that it wasn't a nuke given the reaction from their strongest ally, China:

CHINA responded with rare fury to neighbouring North Korea’s nuclear test, resorting to language generally reserved for imperialist opponents rather than communist friends.

Beijing’s response was unusually swift. “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has ignored the widespread opposition of the international community and brazenly carried out a nuclear test,” it said.

Long gone are the days when China and North Korea described their relationship as being “as close as lips and teeth”. Indeed, North Korea’s test has delivered China to a diplomatic crossroads: it can choose to act tough with a troublesome neighbour or to stick with the cajoling and persuasion that have now been seen to fail.

Looks like the NoKos punched China right in the mouth. However, since the big bang didn't get the U.S. to start bilateral talks, maybe threatening us with a nuclear missile launch will do it:

A North Korean official threatened that communist nation could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts to resolve its standoff with Pyongyang, Yonhap news agency reported Tuesday.

"We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes," the unnamed official said on Monday, according to a Yonhap report from Beijing. "That depends on how the U.S. will act."

I'll bet Jimmuh Carter wet his Depends upon hearing that. His fine work in 1994 essentially paved the way for the crisis we have today.

The missile threat is empty at best. So far the NoKos haven't demonstrated that they have the technological capability to launch a long range missile that won't blow up 40 seconds into the flight. The other issue, of course, is the weapon itself. Though they may have made a big boom in the North Korean mountains, there's no evidence yet that they've created a weapon that could be transported on a missile.

With neighboring countries like China, Japan, Australia and South Korea ready to impose tough sanctions, there's really no reason for the U.S. to give in and start bilateral talks with these nutcases.

At least the news media is starting to give this story it's proper importance. Last night the same local broadcast that gave the NoKo story 30 seconds and Mark Foley 3 minutes the night before, had a lengthy report on North Korea and didn't do any Foleygate news until 22 minutes into the broadcast. That's a good sign.