Party Switching Fantasy

Del Ali of Research 2000 is having some fantasies about GOP Senators switching parties should the Dems take control:

There is a realistic possibility that if the Democrats pick up at least five Senate seats on Election Night, several current Republican Senators could switch to the Democratic side of the aisle. Remember, Shelby switched because he felt Democrats were incapable of moving away from liberalism and Campbell switched because he felt Democrats were beholden to cronyism and did not respect other views among colleagues on issues important to Campbell. In 2006, cronyism is alive and well in the GOP ranks: Arlen Specter is shunned by the GOP leadership and White House for his views on domestic surveillance while Olympia Snowe, John Warner and Chuck Hagel are shunned for their views on Iraq.

I think maybe the giddyness of a possible victory is clouding Ali's thinking. He assumes that a win of 5 seats would prompt party switches. Well, 5 seats would make the senate 50-48-2 in favor of the Republicans, with a Republican Vice President and therefore a Republican majority. Even if Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders win as independents and causus with the Dems, the GOP still has a majority. In that situation, what would prompt a Senator to switch?

Yes, I know Jumpin' Jim Jeffords switched in that same situation, but he had axes to grind that I just don't see in the four Senators mentioned in this article.

First of all Chuck Hagel wants to be president and he knows there's no way he could win the Dem nomination. He'll stay in the GOP.

Arlen Specter is nobody's favorite Republican, but Bush campaigned for him and stood by him even when he had a much more conservative challenger. He won't bolt either.

Warner is too old for that party switching stuff, and Snowe just generally doesn't impress me. I'm not sure she knows what party she's in now.

There could be a defection somewhere in the House, but I don't see it happening in the Senate.

One other thing to think about - if Joe Lieberman wins, what makes anyone so sure that he'll caucus with the Dems? They campaigned against him and called him all sorts of names because he chose not to quit after the primary, while the GOP has been unusually respectful and supportive of him. The GOP certainly hasn't thrown any money toward their own candidate in Connecticut or made trips up there to campaign for him.

Who knows - maybe Joe will take a look around and realize he doesn't like sitting on the side of the chamber with the party that turned their backs on him.