Three Weeks is a Long Time

John McIntyre of Real Clear Politics reminds us that three weeks is a long time, and things can still break back toward the GOP:

Three weeks is a long time. The former trader in me asks: "at what point is the bad news priced in for the GOP?" And where is the Democratic wave talk going to go next? Are we going to see stories in a couple of weeks playing up Democratic prospects of winning 60-70 seats? Or is it more likely we will get a swing back to the GOP and see the inevitable stories wondering "Did the Democrats Peak Too Soon?"

My money would be on the latter. And if that is the case, what does that do to the analysis of where these extremely close races are really going to break?

While I won't discount the wheels totally falling off the GOP bus, and I acknowledge the possibility that Republicans could lose 30 - 40 seats, the evidence I see today ranks that as a lower probability than the GOP holding both Houses. In other words, Republicans have a better chance of retaining control of Congress than they do of losing the Senate and 40+ House seats. That may not be the conventional wisdom bantered about at the moment, but as I said, three weeks is a very long time.

We saw how quickly the tide turned toward the GOP when the 9/11 anniversary came around, and how quickly it reversed when Foleygate broke out. Who knows what will come out between now and Nov. 7th.