Can Rudy Win the GOP Nomination?

USA Today has a piece which details some of Rudy's problems within his own party:

BRETTON WOODS, N.H. — Rudy Giuliani would seem to have all the credentials a candidate for president could want: A hero of 9/11, a crime-busting federal prosecutor, a two-term Republican mayor in an overwhelmingly Democratic city and one of the most admired politicians in the country.

He's got a big problem, though. First, he has to be nominated by Republicans who don't yet know his views on social issues.

"People remember how he provided leadership at a time the city needed it and the country needed it," says coin-company executive Jeff Marsh, 41, as he waits to greet Giuliani at the annual dinner of the Littleton (N.H.) Chamber of Commerce. While Marsh's admiration of Giuliani the man is evident, however, his support for Giuliani the presidential candidate is no sure thing. Giuliani's advocacy of abortion rights gives him "some pause," Marsh says ruefully.

The question is this: Can the thrice-married New Yorker — a supporter of abortion rights, gay rights and gun control — win the nomination of a Republican Party that has become increasingly dependent on and influenced by conservative Christians?

Maybe not, says Tony Fabrizio, a GOP pollster who advised Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

"As a presidential candidate, Rudy Giuliani should absolutely be taken seriously," Fabrizio says. "As a contender for the Republican nomination, he should be taken significantly less seriously. He has the stature to be president, but how does he get the Republican nomination? That is the fundamental disconnect."

The social issues are going to be a problem for Rudy among conservatives, unless the other candidates are so bad or seem so weak that he becomes the fallback position. Either that or the fear of a President Hillary drives voters to anybody else.

Some conservatives have already made peace with Giuliani's moderate to liberal social policy leanings, as evidenced here. For others, there may be a lot more convincing needed.

Mark Daniels is starting a series on How Christians Might Think About the 2008 Presidential Election. The link will take you to part 1. Conservative Christians have played a big role in recent elections, either by strongly backing a specific candidate, or by staying home and throwing close elections to the Dems. Christians will be doing a lot of hard thinking and praying before the votes are cast in '08.