New Polls Show Blacks Switching to Obama, Evangelicals to Rudy

The Washington Post has a new poll which shows shifting allegiances among blacks and evangelicals:

Two interesting trends in the 2008 presidential race were uncovered in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll:

African American voters, "who little more than a month ago heavily supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton... now favor the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama."

White evangelical Protestants now clearly favor Rudy Giuliani over Sen. John McCain, "despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives."

In the Democratic race, the poll found Clinton with 43% support, trailed by Obama at 27% and Edwards at 14%. None of the other Democrats running received more than 3%.

On the Republican side, Giuliani leads with 44% to Sen. John McCain's 21%. Newt Gingrich had 15% support.

I don't find either move particularly puzzling. I figured blacks would quickly take to Obama, and given the heroic press coverage he's getting, why wouldn't they? On the GOP side the evangelical move away from McCain isn't terribly surprising either, though what is surprising is they're moving to Rudy. Could they be less afraid of a social liberal like Rudy than a Mormon like Mitt Romney? I know there are other candidates, but right now they're barely a blip on the radar.

I think GOP voters are looking at the possible Dem candidates and are quickly coming to the conclusion that Rudy will be the stronger candidate against either Obama or Hillary. McCain's got the age thing working against him, not to mention his previous habit of playing to the press and opposing his party on some issues important to evangelicals. I think his participation in the "Gang of 14" really hurt him with evangelicals because he basically signed on to agreements that stopped the confirmations of some very qualified conservative judges to the federal bench.

McCain's other problem: McCain-Feingold, which made free political speech within 60 days of an election illegal (THOU SHALT NOT CRITICISE THINE INCUMBENT!) It's nothing more than an incumbent protection act, and didn't sit well with conservatives.

I don't think either of these moves in the polls are temporary. I would expect these numbers to hold or go even more lopsided in favor of Obama and Rudy.