"A Series of Ill-Conceived Moves"

Mickey Kaus probably has the best description of the Hillary Clinton campaign so far:

The truth is Hillary's campaign has been a series of ill-considered moves. Obama panicked her into a way-too-early-announcement. The cause of the panic was fund-raising (poaching of presumed supporters), which is the least vulnerable aspect of her campaign. Basically, if she wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, she wins the nomination. The most she can spend in Iowa and New Hampshire is $20 million, every last dollar counted, including the surrounding states primary television advertising that will be seen in Iowa. So money is not her problem. Imagining that it was and therefore entering the race six-to-eight months before she needed to was a MAJOR mistake. Had she entered in August or September, the surge would have run its course successfully or not. The Iran issue would be that much further along. Pandemic flu would have hit or not hit. Etc. By announcing early, she brought into play a hundred unnecessary variables.

Wouldn't it have been better to let the Obama wave break on the shore and then jump into the race? Kaus makes a good point about the extra complexities an early announcement brings to the candidates.

Over on the GOP side I can't help but think there's one guy sort of hanging out and waiting to see if a similar set of circumstances occurs among Republicans. That guy is Newt Gingrich. If Newt were to enter the race now, he'd end up spending millions of dollars and probably wouldn't make much headway against the Big-3 (Rudy, Mitt and McCain). However, if things start getting nasty on the GOP side by late summer or early fall, Gingrich might be positioned to sweep in and proclaim himself the candidate who is above all this rancor and unite the conservative base.

I personally don't think Newt can win the general election, and so for that reason alone I hope the scenerio I laid out above doesn't come to pass. However, if the GOP candidates get into a mud-slinging contest later this year, it could open the door to somebody like Newt.