The Ragin' Cajun's '08 Predictions

James Carville's speech to Tulane University regarding '08 is generating a little noise in the blogosphere. In it he made some predictions about '08. My thoughts follow each of Carville's predictions:

• Al Gore will run again. Quoting George Will, Carville said running for the White House is like sex: "You don’t do it once and forget about it.”
  
  HC: Gore is certainly flying high thanks to his Oscars and movie success, and there's a part of the Dem base that worships him and thinks he got robbed in 2000 and would like to reward him for his efforts. I personally don't think he'll get in unless there's some kind of major meltdown with Hillary or Obama.
  
• John McCain will not be on the ballot in Iowa. Citing McCain’s support for the war, Carville said: "He’s a tired old man playing out of character.”
  
  HC: I think it's very possible that the "Straight Talk Express" will derail before Iowa. If his fundraising and poll numbers don't start picking up, or if somebody like Fred Thompson jumps in the race, McCain could well be gone before Iowa.

• The Republican field is so "lackluster” that the party will turn to someone not even in the race yet. "The only person I can figure is Jeb Bush,” Carville said in remarks reported by the New Orleans Times-Picayune.
  
  HC: Carville's right on the idea that the GOP will turn to somebody not in the race, but he's wrong about Jeb Bush. Although Bush would be an outstanding president, the GOP knows that America will not elect another president with the last name of Bush, and to nominate him would be a sure guarantee of defeat. My guess it the GOP white knight will be Fred Thompson.
  
• Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will get the Democratic nomination and most likely win the general election, although Clinton "needs more spice,” and Obama "needs more seasoning.”

HC: I don't see anybody other than Clinton or Obama winning the Dem nomination, though a win in the general election is far from certain. Both candidates carry a lot of baggage either in the form of what the electorate knows about them (Clinton), or doesn't know about them (Obama). I think the election will turn more on who the GOP nominates than who the Dems nominate.