Newt and Fred

Bob Novak reports that Newt Gingrich will remain on the presidential sideline unless Fred Thompson stumbles:

Newt Gingrich is telling Republican insiders that his decision in September whether to run for president in 2008 depends on the progress of Fred Thompson's imminent candidacy.

If Thompson runs a vigorous and effective campaign, Gingrich says privately, he probably will not get in the race himself. If Thompson proves a dud, however, the former House speaker will seriously consider making a run. That implies that the others in the field look to Gingrich like losers in the general election.

A footnote: Gingrich has weighed in more heavily on the immigration issue than any of the major Republican presidential hopefuls. He has bombarded Republican Senate offices with material attacking the immigration bill backed by President Bush, even sending proposed talking points to senators about to meet with the president.

Newt needs to stay out of the race. Why? He can't win. He's a great idea guy, but once he was able to establish a Republican majority in 1994 and enact some of the initial "Contract With America" ideas, he didn't know where to go from there and the majority foundered. Within four years he was gone as Speaker.

While the staunchest conservatives may love him, he will have big negatives among nearly everybody else which makes a general election victory quite unlikely. Just as a way left liberal might be able to win the Dem primary only to get crushed in the general election, Newt would have comparable results on the GOP side. My advice to Newt - keep generating ideas and talking points, but stay out of the race.