Hillary Probably Won't Take Obama for Veep

Bob Novak writes on the Veep sweepstakes already underway at the Hillary Clinton campaign:

Anticipating that Sen. Hillary Clinton will clinch the Democratic presidential nomination, some supporters are beginning to argue against her choosing her principal rival -- Sen. Barack Obama -- for vice president.

They maintain Obama provides no general election help for Clinton. As an African-American from Illinois, he represents an ethnic group and a state already solidly in the Democratic column.

This school of thought advocates a Southerner as Clinton's running mate. The last time Democrats won a national election without a Southerner on the ticket was 1944. Prominent Democrats from the South are in short supply today. The leading prospect: former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner.

It's pretty much a foregone conclusion that Hillary will win the nomination. Obama clearly isn't ready for the big time, and none of other candidates are inspiring any particular devotion from the Dem base. Not only will John Edwards lost the nomination...again, but he won't be the Veep pick either. He had his chance.

While Hillary/Obama would make for a historic ticket, Obama's presence probably wouldn't help Hillary at all. The people that are currently supporting Obama won't switch to a Republican just because he loses. They'll stick with the Dems. The Veep also isn't going to draw independents or liberal Republicans that haven't already gone 'round the bend.

Mark Warner would be an attractive candidate and could possibly switch Virginia from red to blue, though his impact in other parts of the south is uncertain. Of course, there's always the issue of Clinton's negatives which could offset any positives brought by Warner. To many Americans Hillary is a genuinely dislikeable person and that's going to make her road in the general election that much tougher. Having an attractive Veep won't necessarily fix any of that.