Bad Data Drops Number of HIV Cases

Looks like some bad data (or perhaps a little wishful thinking) has infected the numbers reported for worldwide HIV infections:

LONDON (AP) - The number of AIDS cases worldwide fell by more than 6 million cases this year to 33.2 million, global health officials said Tuesday. But the decline is mostly on paper.

Previous estimates were largely inflated, and the new numbers are the result of a new methodology. They show AIDS cases in 2007 were down from almost 39.5 million last year, according to the World Health Organization and the United Nations AIDS agency.

Although the decline is largely due to revised numbers, U.N. officials said it still showed the AIDS pandemic was losing momentum.

"For the first time, we are seeing a decline in global AIDS deaths," said Dr. Kevin De Cock, director of WHO's AIDS department.

The two agencies will issue their annual AIDS report Wednesday after convening an expert meeting last week in Geneva to examine their data collection methods.

Much of the drop is due to revised numbers from India - which earlier this year slashed its numbers in half, from about 6 million cases to about 3 million - and to new data from several countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Previous AIDS numbers were largely based on the numbers of infected pregnant women at clinics, as well as projecting the AIDS rates of certain high-risk groups like drug users to the entire population at risk. Officials said those numbers were flawed, and are now incorporating more data like national household surveys.

I use the term "wishful thinking" because we all know that certain groups see a dollars-and-cents benefit from higher infection rates and numbers. It's good for fundraising.

The good news is in addition to the much lower corrected numbers there does seem to be a general decline in HIV infections as some of the education and national health efforts seem to be working.

One note of caution, however. These are UN numbers which mean they come from the same people currently promoting apocalyptic visions of global warming. Could their numbers be bad too? Scott Ott thinks so: UN: Millions Not Suffering AIDS Now Doomed to Drown