Hillary's Poll Negatives May Be Her Undoing

Despite efforts to humanize Hillary Clinton, she hasn't made any significant progress in lowing her poll negatives:

WASHINGTON — More than eight in 10 Republicans and more than half the married men in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll say they definitely wouldn't vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton for president....

In a general election, the poll suggests that Clinton has the least potential for winning votes from Republicans — 84% say they definitely would not vote for her, compared with six in 10 for either Obama or Edwards. Independents show the least resistance to Obama and the most to Edwards.

The poll found that 36% of women wouldn't vote for Clinton, compared with 50% of men — and 55% of married men. Obama had comparable appeal to women and more to men. Clinton's appeal overall falls as income rises, the reverse of the findings for Obama....

Clinton's unfavorable rating in the poll was 45%, vs. 30% for Obama and 31% for Edwards. "A fairly substantial number of ordinary voters have doubts about her," says Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College near Los Angeles....

Overall, 43% in the poll would not vote for Clinton. Top reasons: They don't like her, her husband or her views. Retired professor Charles Bilbrey of Harrisonburg, Va., 65, a GOP-leaning moderate, calls Clinton "abrasive."

Others cite Clinton's marriage. "My biggest reason is she put up with her husband" after his affair with intern Monica Lewinsky, says Republican Betty Muse, 77, a retired nutrition director in New London, N.C.

Political scientist Gerald Benjamin at the State University of New York at New Paltz says old scandals "certainly will surface" if Democrats nominate her.

Those numbers will only get worse (and probably already have as Hillary's bad debate performance echoes through the electorate). And just what is Hillary's own pollster smoking?

Pollster Mark Penn, a top Clinton strategist, says Clinton's strength against GOP hopefuls is growing. "With candidates who are lesser known, typically we see the opposite pattern happen," he says, citing 2004 nominee John Kerry as an example. Penn also says her appeal to Republican women is rising, and nearly a quarter of them could defect to her in a general election.

That's a lot of baloney. There's not a chance in the world that 25% of Republican women will defect and vote for Hillary. Penn must thing GOP ladies are a bunch of shallow, easily swayed people who would disregard all of their values just to vote for another woman. Won't happen.

Iowa could very much see a repeat of 2004 when the leader going into caucus night ended up finishing third because of fears of his electibility. The race completely changed that night and the Iowa winner, John Kerry, quickly jumped to the frontrunner position and won the nomination.

Hillary has to win Iowa. If Obama wins, I think he'll pretty much run the table like Kerry did and voters will flee the Clintons and run to a candidate they think might have a chance in November (he won't, but it will make them feel better to think he does).

There's also word this morning that Hillary has backed out of a Today show interview. I guess she's "punishing" NBC for allowing Tim Russert to ask her hard questions, and she'll never make the mistake again of sitting down for an unscripted interview with somebody who may actually challenge her.