Obama Takes the Lead in Iowa

A new ABC poll has Barack Obama taking the lead in Iowa:

The top three Democratic contenders remain locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key fronts, including the questions of experience and which candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Illinois Senator Barack Obama gets the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared to 26 percent for Clinton, 22 percent for former senator John Edwards and 11 percent for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. The results are only marginally changed from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the course for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama -- and harbingers of concern for Clinton.

This is a direct result of the two weeks of stumbling the Clinton campaign did after the Philadelphia debate. It's too early to tell if the Las Vegas debate may turn those numbers around.

The "experts" tell us that Clinton can lose Iowa and still go on to win, but a loss in Iowa would make New Hampshire and Nevada much more difficult and could start momentum away from Clinton.