HolyCoast: Bad Polling News for Obama or Just a Bad Poll
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Thursday, December 27, 2007

Bad Polling News for Obama or Just a Bad Poll

This poll was headlined on Drudge most of the day Wednesday:
WASHINGTON (CNN) – Call it an early Christmas gift for Hillary Clinton’s campaign: A new Iowa poll seems to show the New York senator with a stunning double-digit lead over her nearest rival among likely Democratic caucus-goers.

Clinton and Obama were neck-and-neck in last week’s American Research Group poll. But in the new survey, conducted December 20-23, she leads the Illinois senator by 15 percentage points, 34 to 19 percent. Obama is now in a statistical tie for second place with former North Carolina senator John Edwards, who has 20 percent of the vote.

According to the poll, Obama has lost some ground among male voters in Iowa: Last week, he led the field with 27 percent support, followed by 21 for Clinton and 19 for Edwards. This week, the leaders are Clinton and Edwards, with 28 and 27 percent support among Democratic men. Obama has 16 percent support, and Joe Biden has 11 percent.
This doesn't make a lot of sense. I have to wonder about the polling sample since at this point it is such an outlier compared to every other poll that has come out in Iowa recently. Let's see if the other polls show similar numbers. I might believe it then, but not until then.

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