Clinton Could Lose All the Early Contests

Howard Fineman is reading the early contest tea leaves and sees bad things coming for Hillary Clinton:

WASHINGTON - Sen. Hillary Clinton’s campaign is teetering on the brink, no matter what the meaningless national horserace numbers say. The notion that she has a post-Iowa “firewall” in New Hampshire is a fantasy, and she is in danger of losing all four early contests, including Nevada and South Carolina – probably to Sen. Barack Obama, who is now, in momentum terms, the Democratic frontrunner....

SEN. BARACK OBAMA
National polls still give Hillary a double-digit lead. Those polls mean nothing. What matters now is not the number but the direction, and Obama is movin’ on up at a rapid pace. Little pieces of evidence matter. In Manchester, N.H., the other day, Democratic Gov. John Lynch showed up at the Obama-Oprah rally, ostensibly to introduce Oprah, but, really to cover his bets politically. The newest polls in the state show why: Obama is tied with Hillary, and people are literally exchanging her lawn signs for his. If he can win Iowa – and it remains a big if – Hillary’s campaign could collapse. New Hampshire would almost surely go his way. The Culinary Workers in Nevada might well endorse him, as could influential South Carolina Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn. Black Democrats have complained for years that Iowa and New Hampshire are “too white.” But the irony is, South Carolina African-Americans I talked to last weekend want to see if Obama can win white votes before they commit to him. There is no better way of doing that than in Iowa and New Hampshire. And don’t forget something else: he has 150,000 online contributors. He can raise cash fast.

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON
If she is going to argue that Obama is unelectable in the fall – if she is going to argue that the Democrats cannot afford to take the risk on a Southside Chicago street organizer – she had better get to it in the debate this week. But it is a tricky proposition. In a way, Hillary is trapped by her own do-it-yourself feminist ethos. She should have surrogates out there pounding away at Obama. I haven’t seen them. And her husband, evidently, won’t do it. Why should Bill Clinton tarnish his image as “America’s first black president” by attacking the man who might be the real deal? His circle is beginning to complain, loudly, about how Hillary is running her campaign. That kind of circular firing squad chatter is the first sign of a campaign headed into oblivion.

It looks like the veil of "inevitibility" has been completely lifted. Should Hillary lose all four early contests, it's over. Obamamania will be in full cry, and though Clinton may win a primary here and there, she clearly will have lost the momentum and the voters will flee.

I would really enjoy that. The next question then becomes - who wins in a national Obama vs. Huckabee contest? That one's a toss-up because neither candidate can claim great national experience. Huck would have the edge on executive experience, but Obama would have the edge on sheer emotional energy. That campaign would probably feature the two least-qualified candidates in the history of presidential elections.