For Rudy and Hillary Losing the Battle Might Mean Winning the War

Sometimes it's hard to follow the political machinations of Dick Morris, but he suggests in this article that even though Hillary and Rudy might suffer multiple defeats in the early primaries, they'll probably both still go on to win their party's nominations:

There is only one way for Hillary to shift the focus onto Obama or John Edwards: lose. By losing in Iowa and New Hampshire, she makes the key question not her veracity but Obama’s or Edwards’s ability to win. Democrats are going to be reluctant to nominate someone they know so little about as Obama and will wonder if the nation is ready for an African-American candidate (it is) or for a man who has been senator for 104 weeks before running for president (it’s not). They will also wonder about nominating Edwards, who lost twice in 2004. When the question becomes viability, not credibility, Hillary is in a league of her own with her ability to bring new female voters to the polls.

The question that has dominated the GOP contest is, “Should we nominate someone as liberal as Rudy on social issues?” The answer among the stalwarts is obviously no. As long as the social conservatives are divided among four candidates, Rudy has a shot. But when they rally behind one man (probably Huckabee) conservatives outnumber moderates in Republican primaries, particularly if the independents are drawn into the Democratic primary by Hillary’s new vulnerability.

But by losing, Rudy shifts the focus. Republicans will ask, “Is America ready to elect a Mormon?” (unfortunately not) and, “Are we ready to go with Romney or Huckabee who have no experience in foreign or military affairs?” Once again, Rudy will profit from the shift in focus his defeat in the early contests will trigger.

I think Morris underplays the momentum effect of multiple losses on the voters in the future primaries. Just because Rudy and Hillary are strong in Florida today, for instance, they may lose significant support should they take a beating in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina. I think it would be tough to keep the support going, unless the victories in those other states are split among two or more candidates. If one candidate takes them all in either party and it's not Hillary or Rudy, they could be in big trouble.