The Fred That Could Have Been

I think Fred Thompson's withdrawal from his presidential run is now just a matter of time and formality, and for many, it will mark the end of any real interest in the GOP race. So how did Fred go from promise to *POOF* so quickly?

I, like many conservatives, was very excited about Fred when I watched his Fox News Sunday Morning interview with Chris Wallace last March. Here was a guy who articulated the things I believed, had a commanding presence, and certainly looked like he could chew up liberals for breakfast. Without doing anything he quickly shot up in the polls. Unfortunately, the success he experienced by doing nothing apparently transitioned into a campaign strategy of doing nothing, fearing perhaps that maybe doing something would cause more harm than good.

I heard rumors that Fred would announce on July 4th. The summer passed and questions started being raised. Finally, after Labor Day, Fred made his appearance on Leno to formally enter the race. Many pundits thought it was too late to get in at that point. My opinion, yes and no.

No, it was not too late to begin an aggressive run for the White House. He had momentum on his side on that first day but never capitalized on it. Instead the campaign seemed not only unhurried, but almost lazy. Fred's numbers began to drop and that didn't seem to have much effect on the campaign as it should have.

On the other side, yes, it was too late given the eager anticipation of his potential Fred Heads who sat out a hot summer while their guy bided his time. Fred should have jumped on the momentum that was there in July and gotten in the race. Even if his summer campaign had not been at a frenetic pace he still could have maintained the interest of his supporters. He also could have used that time to fund raise for the Fall.

As his numbers dropped through the Fall the campaign's pace didn't seem to pick up until only two weeks before Iowa when Fred suddenly launched a vigorous bus campaign. It didn't help. By that time most voters had made their choices and the "Fred is lazy" meme had fully taken hold.

There was another brief spark of life when Fred slapped down the moderator in the Iowa debate and then shone in the South Carolina debate. Fred's stump performance improved and what he was saying was resonating with many conservatives. Unfortunately, Fred had already lost most of the evangelicals to Huckabee, and McCain was actively courting independents and Democrats to vote for him in the open primary. Fred was dead.

I guess we have to take Fred seriously when he claims he didn't like running for president. He likely would have been an excellent Chief Executive, but that's not enough to win anymore. You have to spend the hours shaking hands and kissing babies, and you have to look like you really want the job.

Where will the Fred Heads go now? I don't know if Fred will endorse somebody else, but that may not matter. Former Fred Heads will likely be an unmotivated a voter base as you might find. They won't easily find a home with either McCain or Huckabee. I doubt that Romney or Giuliani will have much luck winning them over either. After following a genuine conservative they're going to have a hard time throwing their support to a sort-of conservative.

It's really sad it worked out this way - sad for the GOP and sad for America.