Clinton's Last Stand

Events are quickly setting up for the March 4th Texas and Ohio primaries in which Hillary Clinton may face her own personal Little Big Horn, and possibly with the same results experienced by Gen. Custer. Barack Obama swept all five contests this past weekend after having a pretty good Super Tuesday. He's pretty much guaranteed to win 2 and maybe all 3 of the Potomac Primary contests (Maryland, D.C., Virginia), and if he should sweep those, Obamamentum may be unstoppable. Her campaign is still trying to sound optimistic despite switching campaign managers yesterday:

Beginning on Super Tuesday last week, when the two top Democrats essentially tied in a 22-state showdown, Mrs. Clinton's aides have acknowledged that Mr. Obama was likely to score a series of wins until March 4, when the Clinton campaign believes it can prevail in Ohio and Texas. However, Mrs. Clinton's team may not have expected that Mr. Obama's margins in the February contests could push him out front in the delegate race.

During a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton's communications director, Howard Wolfson, seemed to predict that Mrs. Clinton would maintain her lead in the delegate count, even as Mr. Obama notched some victories this month.

"We think that we are in the pole position because we have a lead overall in delegates. We think it is going to be very difficult for Senator Obama to make up that lead because of the way in which the party allocates its delegates proportionally. So we feel very good about that, but this is going to be a neck and neck contest for the foreseeable future," Mr. Wolfson told reporters. "Senator Obama does enjoy some advantages in the contests in the rest of February but not in a way that should permit to him to overcome our lead in delegates."

By last night, however, Mrs. Clinton's lead in the delegate race already seemed to have evaporated. The CBS News count had Mr. Obama at 1,134 delegates and Mrs. Clinton at 1,131, with 2,025 needed to secure the nomination under current rules. CNN, ABC News, and the Associated Press had Mrs. Clinton narrowly ahead, though it appeared the balance might shift in Mr. Obama's favor after tomorrow's primaries in Maryland, Virginia, and the nation's capital.

If Obama moves into a lead in delegates by more than just a few votes, Clinton will face a tough battle to catch up. She's not likely to have the kind of blowouts Obama did over the weekend, and that's what it takes under the Dem format to gain ground in the delegate count.