Could a Dem War Be Building

If you thought the race battles in South Carolina constituted a war in the Dem party, you haven't seen anything yet if the Dems get to the convention and Hillary wins by virtue of the "superdelegates", which consists largely of elected Dems and other Dem bigwigs. If Obama ends up winning many more state contests (as he did yesterday) and the voters give him more pledged delegates (as it appears they did yesterday) but Hillary is able to claim victory because of the Dem insiders who make up the superdelegates, it'll be war in Denver.

Captain Ed has more on his take from yesterday and what it may mean going forward:

Big states don't mean much for Democratic candidates. All states proportionally allocate delegates in Democratic primaries, so what matters is the overall vote across all of the states. Obama kept it close enough in the big states, and won big in Illinois and other medium-sized states to make up the difference.

In wins, Obama now clearly outshines Hillary. Obama won 14 of the contests yesterday, and he won a broader geographical spread. Hillary won in California, New York and New England, and three Southern states. Obama won the interior West, completely carried the Midwest, got the larger Southern states, and stole Connecticut. A look at the map shows Obama's reach.

Without the superdelegates, the count between Hillary and Obama separates them by a mere six delegates. She has a current lead of 87 superdelegates to put her 93 above Obama, but that may not last long. The next contests favor Obama, with Saturday's Louisiana, Nebraska, and Washington primaries, and next Tuesday's DC, Maryland, and Virginia Beltway showdown. Obama will vault ahead of Hillary in normal pledged delegates by next Wednesday -- but probably not with the superdelegates Hillary has in her pocket.

It's still looking like the GOP 1976 for the Democrats. If Hillary has to rely on the superdelegates to beat Obama at the convention, it will be a disaster for the party. They needed a more decisive outcome yesterday, and what they got was a complete muddle.

The superdelegate concept was created to prevent a nutcase like George McGovern from winning the nomination again. It's worked fine for them up to now, but it could create some havoc at the convention this year...I hope.