Don't Get Too Nervous About High Democratic Turnout

Some Republicans are starting to panic everytime a new round of primaries comes along and the reports of "record" Democrat turnout hit the airwaves. David Freddoso writes at The Corner that primary turnout doesn't necessarily translate into general election victory:

In the open election of 1988, 23 million Democrats voted in primaries, as did 12 million Republicans. Yes, you're reading that correctly. Nearly twice as many Democrats voted. That was a precursor to President Michael Dukakis's election.

In 1980, Democrats actually had an incumbent president, who was challenged by Ted Kennedy. Republicans, meanwhile, had a competitive primary between Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Democrats cast 16.1 million votes in their primaries that year, compared to just (corrected) 12.7 million for Republicans. We all know what happened in Jimmy Carter's second term, don't we?

The only times Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in primaries in the last 35 years were 2000 and 1996 — both years when Republicans were sick of being out of power. Even in those years, Republican turnout was only slightly higher than Democratic turnout.

That's where the Democrats are now — they are sick of being out of power. Plus, they'll probably still be choosing their nominee in July, so expect their advantage to climb. Their turnout is higher, just as it always has been, it shouldn't come as any surprise.

By historical standards vis-a-vis the Republicans, Democrats' turnout this year has been no great shakes, even if it is going to shatter the records in the numerical sense. Or maybe Republican turnout has been slightly high. But it's no surprise that more people vote when their primary actually means something, is it?

Of course Democrats are more excited about their candidates and prospects this year, but things can change dramatically once the candidates have been finalized and the voters have been subjected to months of political wrangling.