A Quick Look at the Favorites

Political Wire gives us an idea of what to look for as the results come in tonight:

Here's how we rate the races for Democrats:

Advantage Clinton:
Arkansas, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Advantage Obama:
Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota

No Clear Favorite:
Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, Massachusetts, American Samoa, Democrats Abroad

Here's how we rate the races for Republicans:

Advantage McCain:
Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma

Advantage Romney:
Alaska, Colorado, West Virginia, Utah, North Dakota, Massachusetts, Montana

No Clear Favorite:
California, Missouri, Georgia, Minnesota

Note: I've highlighted the winner-take-all contests. You can see that McCain has a distinct advantage in those races. I also added North Dakota to the Romney column based on his success in a straw poll there, and Massachusetts due to his position as a former governor. I'm not sure why Political Wire didn't have those.

One of the Dem "no clear advantage" contests has already move to the Obama column. He wins Democrats Abroad. What will make news tonight is if any of the "advantage" races move to the other candidate, or if a lot of the "no clear advantage" races move toward just one candidate. That will probably tell you who has really won Super Tuesday.