Turnout Could Be a Problem for McCain Tomorrow

Now that he's the presumptive nominee, Jim Geraghty reports that John McCain may have more trouble turning out his voters in tomorrow's Potomac Primaries than he did before Super Tuesday:

Tuesday's Potomac primaries (Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C.) will be a more significant measuring stick. The problem for the McCain effort is that Huckabee's supporters will show up, Ron Paul's voters will show up, and disgruntled conservatives who find McCain unacceptable will probably show up to vote against him. McCain's supporters may show up... or they may conclude that the race is over, and that their man doesn't need their vote. (As mentioned last week, many northern Virginia Republicans were thinking of voting in the Democratic primary.)

"Getting turnout, it’s a very real problem," said one McCain strategist. "People who participate in primaries are less engaged in the day to day, and getting them to turn out is a little more challenging when the front page is 'McCain has the nomination wrapped up.' In those circumstances, the races will be closer. The latest poll in Virginia has us up 30 points, and we're not going to win by 30 points."

Having said that, Maryland is the state of Annapolis, and Virginia is the state of Newport News, so McCain will be operating with a certain floor of retired military veterans, the same demographic that has been key to his wins in South Carolina and Florida.

I still expect McCain to win, but it might not be with the big margines he would have otherwise expected. A large protest vote, however, could make things pretty exciting.