The 5% Chance

David Brooks, writing in the NY Times, gives Hillary Clinton only a 5% change of wresting the nomination from Barack Obama and then goes on to detail what Hillary will do for the 5% chance:

Let’s take a look at what she’s going to put her party through for the sake of that 5 percent chance: The Democratic Party is probably going to have to endure another three months of daily sniping. For another three months, we’ll have the Carvilles likening the Obamaites to Judas and former generals accusing Clintonites of McCarthyism. For three months, we’ll have the daily round of résumé padding and sulfurous conference calls. We’ll have campaign aides blurting “blue dress” and only-because-he’s-black references as they let slip their private contempt.

For three more months (maybe more!) the campaign will proceed along in its Verdun-like pattern. There will be a steady rifle fire of character assassination from the underlings, interrupted by the occasional firestorm of artillery when the contest touches upon race, gender or patriotism. The policy debates between the two have been long exhausted, so the only way to get the public really engaged is by poking some raw national wound.

For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldn’t vote for the other candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCain’s approval ratings have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans. A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in a general election matchup. Now McCain has a lead among this group.

For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.

Some folks are still worried that keeping Hillary alive in the campaign could come back to haunt the GOP in the fall, but I have my doubts. Both Dems are hurting each other without laying a glove on McCain, and much of the damage is self-inflicted. To mix sports metaphors, once one candidate has the ball and starts gaining yards, they fumble. Just last week Hillary had the momentum as the "pastor disaster" was unfolding for Obama, but then James Carville made his amazingly stupid remark comparing Bill Richardson to Judas (which by inference compares Hillary to Jesus), and voila, a fumble. Add to that the unmasking of Hillary's Balkan fairy tale and you have the end of a potentially winning drive.

It's all just too much fun.

I'll talk about this subject and more on Tueday's BlogTalkRadio program (on a special night this week) which you can hear by clicking on the icon. Feel free to call in and join the conversation. The show kicks off at 7pm PT tonight.

It'll just be me and you, so call in and let's talk. The call-in number will be (347) 347-5547.