Are Dems Better or Worse Off Today Than They Were in 1968?

Michael Cohen writes today in the Wall Street Journal about the differences and similarities between the Dems of 1968 and 2008:

It has been more than five decades since any political party in America has had a brokered convention, and for political junkies a heated battle at the Democratic convention seems like a tantalizing possibility. But for Democrats, a protracted nomination battle, culminating in a convention fight, could undermine the party's hopes of reclaiming the White House this fall.

Since voters in Ohio and Texas breathed new life into Hillary Clinton's campaign, some have argued that the current stalemate will not hurt the party's candidate come November. After all, as several prominent bloggers have argued, wasn't the 1968 Democratic primary battle worse? Didn't eventual nominee Hubert Humphrey go on to lose by a mere 1% of the popular vote to Richard Nixon? If a bitter Democratic race hurts a party's chances in the general election, shouldn't Humphrey have lost by more?

The current struggle between Mrs. Clinton and Barack Obama doesn't hold a candle to 1968. Forty years ago that race was capped by a "police riot" against antiwar demonstrators at the party's national convention in Chicago. However, the lessons of that year should be sobering for Democrats today.

I think it's a little early to write this story. We haven't gotten to Denver yet, and I don't think a riot is out of the question, though it won't be a "police riot" if there is one. However, there are plenty of antiwar and anarchist nuts out there that would love to "Re-create 68" as their website promotes.

The divisions of 2008 are not between the antiwar and moderate crowd, but between the supporters of two candidates whose views and policies are almost identical, but who attract very different segments of the special interest groups that make up the Dem party. Some of those segments may vote together on most occasions, but don't particularly like one another (such as black and latino voters). Depending on how the nominations come out, the divisions in the Dem party could be every bit as deep as they were in 1968.

Cohen mentions that Humphrey barely lost in '68, but doesn't mention that once the antiwar crowd got ahold of the party, they got creamed in '72. The Dems went from a crushing victory ('64) to a devastating defeat ('72) in just 8 years. In this year when Dems were expected to stroll to an easy victory, they may be setting themselves up for a significant defeat. We can hope.