How Will the Dem Race End?

Time Magazine takes a look at three possible resolutions to the Dem primary race. Here's number 1:

1. Clinton Loses Indiana on May 6 and Pulls Out
There will be two primaries that day, but North Carolina is considered almost certain to go for Obama, which means Clinton will be putting most of her effort into Indiana. Privately, her advisers concede that it will be difficult to continue in the race if she does not win there.

It won't be any more difficult for Clinton to go on after a narrow loss in Indiana than it is for her to go on now. Indiana is expected to be close, and thanks to Dem rules, the delegate totals will be very close. With additional primaries to go and no resolution to the Michigan/Florida mess, a loss in Indiana won't be enough to get her out of the race.

Number 2:

2. Party Leaders End It in June
Worried democrats have been talking for weeks about the possibility of party elders conspiring to bring things to a close in May. But in a group as leaderless as the Democratic Party, it is far from clear who actually has the clout to play that role, especially while there are states that have yet to vote. Al Gore, assumed to favor Obama, has resisted those who have entreated him to make a public move, telling them privately, "Nobody likes an umpire."

All that could change after the last two states, South Dakota and Montana, vote on June 3. That's the time party chairman Howard Dean, Senate majority leader Harry Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are expected to tell the superdelegates — about 300 of the roughly 800 delegates overall who have yet to commit — that it is time to make up their minds. Pelosi in particular is key, as more than 70 of those uncommitted superdelegates are House members. For many, holding back now is more a matter of principle than preference. "They don't want to be perceived as telling voters how to vote," says former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle, who is heading Obama's superdelegate effort.

It's not going to end this way, either. Even if every single superdelegate announces their choice on June 4th and Hillary is mathematically eliminated, she knows that party rules do not commit any superdelegates to vote for a previously announced candidate and that they can change right up to the actual ballot in Denver. With more than two months remaining until the convention, she will still have plenty of time to twist arms and make the case that Obama can't win against McCain. What would she have to gain by quitting at that point?

Number 3:

3. A Fight All the Way to Denver
Resolving the unfinished business of how and whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegates could make the recent sniping between Obama and Clinton seem like back-fence chitchat. Florida's situation should be the easier of the two, because both candidates were on the ballot there and turnout was high. Michigan is another story, because Obama's name didn't appear on the ballot. Clinton's team is saying she won't agree to any resolution in either state that would dilute her delegate totals, a position that could lead to a summerlong brawl if her team sticks with it to the end.

That would mean that for the first time since 1972, the party could open its national convention without a nominee-designate. Right now the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations rests with the party's rules and bylaws committee, a group of fewer than 100 party regulars who are trying to work out a resolution. But if they don't find one before June 29, the matter moves to the credentials committee, which is nearly twice as big and even more political — and over which Howard Dean will hold relatively little power. Imagine that: after a year of record-shattering turnout, the party's nominee could be chosen in a smoke-filled room — in July. If it comes to that, at least one person will be smiling: John McCain.

Now we're talking. The situation in Florida and Michigan cannot be resolved before the convention in a way that will be satisfactory to both campaigns. Given the argument in #2 above about the freedom of superdelegates (and even some pledged delegates) to vote however they wish in Denver, I think Hillary will roll the dice and stay in the race in the hopes that more information will come out to damage Obama's chances, and that more articles like this one will be written telling Democrats that America is not ready to elect a black president. All of this will be worked into Hillary's argument to the superdelegates that they must, for the sake of the party and the country, overturn the will of the primary voters and make her the nominee.

Let the games continue.