Love Won't Keep Them Together

Jim Geraghty writes about the dangers now faced by Democrats who have fallen in love with their candidates so much that when one or the other loses the nomination entire groups of voters will feel spurned:

I think one of the truly complicating factors for the Democrats is that their party is not just split, but that each half of the base has more or less fallen in love with its ideal candidate. They don't just think of their candidate as a good leader and potential good president, they see their preferred choice as a historical destiny, on course to radically improve America, opposed only by the shortsighted and the sinister. We've talked about the "O-ba-ma, O-ba-ma" chanting cultlike atmosphere of the Illinois Senator's rallies, but Hillary's supporters are pretty much as dedicated and uncompromising, and every bit as uncharitable to their Democratic competition.

Each candidate's base is personally identifying with the candidate, often along the lines of race, age, or gender. Each side is taking criticism of the candidate from the other side personally. One of these two sides is destined to feel like a spurned lover when the opposing nominee takes the stage in Denver and says, "I accept your nomination." Each one may or may not stifle the urge to boo, jeer, walk out or turn off the television.

By comparison, on the Republican side... there are a lot of conservatives who are quite reluctantly supporting McCain. Some are gradually warming to him. Some are recognizing there are some days he'll be great (Iraq, fighting wasteful spending) and some days he'll be lousy (campaign finance reform, cap and trade). He's earned their respect, but it's unlikely he'll ever win their devotion. And that's okay. Politics inevitably includes compromise, disappointment, a recognition that leaders stumble, fall, make the wrong decision.

A party that nominates Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon and Dwight Eisenhower does not always look for an inspiring ideal to quicken the pulse and put stars in voters' eyes. One might think that with Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry, that Democrats were more accepting of imperfect vessels.) But recall that all of those men were compared to Kennedy, the Democrats' ideal, and the party's voters flirted with Dean, loved Bill Clinton (until recently), put their faith in a peanut farmer who pledged to never lie, contemplated , nominated McGovern. They want to be swept off their feet; they don't want a candidate they can merely respect.

And when one of their candidates falls short, about half the Democratic party will be be heartbroken.

The day that Obama or Clinton withdraws will be a momentous one, even if they manage to cobble together a "dream team" ticket. Whichever candidate ends up in the VP slot (or out altogether) will have millions of disaffected voters who won't be able to tolerate the sight of their opponent at the top of the ticket. Given the way that emotions dictate the way Democrats respond, you can expect that those voters will be reluctant to unify with the party and many will either defect or just stay home in November.