California Supremes May Have Handed the State to McCain

The Election Law Blog has an insight regarding the California gay marriage ruling that I haven't seen elsewhere:

Today's 4-3 decision of the California Supreme Court striking down under the California Constitution a California statute limiting "marriage" to opposite-sex couples could help John McCain in the fall. (More coverage of the opinion itself at How Appealing.) The decision is based upon the California Constitution, which can be changed by the voters. And, according to this story in the S.F. Chronicle, it seems very likely an initiative overturning the decision through a constitutional amendment will qualify and appear on the November ballot.

This helps John McCain because those conservative voters may not have come out in great numbers for him, but they will come out now to vote for this amendment, and they are more likely to vote for McCain than for the Democrat once they are already voting. That's not to say that California will go red, but it is to say that the Democratic nominee will have to devote more resources to this very expensive to campaign in state.

California conservatives will not be going to the polls in large numbers to support McCain, that's for sure. However, given the distate that conservatives have for gay marriage they may show up just for the opportunity to overturn the Supreme Court's ruling. The Election Law Blog suggests that those conservative voters will go ahead and vote for McCain as long as they're there... but not this voter.