Gays Banned From Military, Women Hardest Hit

Here's another one of those silly stories in which outcomes are assumed to be proportional to percentage of a particular population, much like the black incarceration rate story I had yesterday:

WASHINGTON — The Army and Air Force discharged a disproportionate number of women in 2007 under the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy that prohibits openly gay people from serving in the military, according to Pentagon statistics gathered by an advocacy group.

While women make up 14 percent of Army personnel, 46 percent of those discharged under the policy last year were women. And while 20 percent of Air Force personnel are women, 49 percent of its discharges under the policy last year were women.

By comparison for 2006, about 35 percent of the Army’s discharges and 36 percent of the Air Force’s were women, according to the statistics.

The information was gathered under a Freedom of Information Act request by the Servicemembers Legal Defense Network, a policy advocacy organization.

“Women make up 15 percent of the armed forces, so to find they represent nearly 50 percent of Army and Air Force discharges under ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’ is shocking,” said Aubrey Sarvis, the organization’s executive director. “Women in particular have been caught in the crosshairs of this counterproductive law.”

Is this really that hard to understand? What type of women are most likely to be attracted to military service? Girly-girls who grew up playing dress-up with dollies or girls who were more into athletics and tomboy stuff. I'm guessing the latter will make up a much greater proportion of women recruits, and among that population your odds of lesbianism are probably much greater. Therefore, the percentage of lesbians among the military population is likely to be much higher than in the female general population.

Among males who choose military service I'm guessing the percentage of gays is pretty small - much smaller than the male population in general. That conclusion would seem to be obvious, again based on the type of men attracted to military service. You're not going to see guys with effeminate mannerisms getting past the recruiters.

Therefore, with a higher percentage of lesbian women than the overall population, and a lower percentage of gay men than the overall population, the numbers shown for the military in the report above make perfect sense.