McCain Wins, Conservatives Lose

Stuart Rothenberg writes today that a McCain win could start a very destructive period in the GOP:

Illinois political columnist Russ Stewart has argued that the 2008 winner, regardless of party, will face such intractable problems that he will be a one-termer, damaging his party over the next four years and turning the White House over to the opposition in 2012.

I don't necessarily agree with Stewart that a McCain victory in November would lead to the "eradication" of the GOP, but it's easy to see how a McCain presidency could end up being a nightmare for Republicans.

In the worst-case scenario, a McCain victory in November could likely lead to a Republican bloodletting that would tear apart the GOP well before 2012, contribute to another good Democratic election in 2010 and hand Democrats such a strong advantage during redistricting that Republicans wouldn't be able to recover for years.

The scenario is simple: McCain wins and immediately follows his own instincts - meaning he tries to patch together a series of coalitions on ethics, immigration, spending and global warming.

Some of the initiatives require bipartisan efforts, while others rely heavily on Democrats with a smattering of Republicans. A few McCain policies, particularly those involving the war in Iraq and the larger war against terror, depend heavily on Republican support.

The one thing that is sure is that a McCain presidency wouldn't merely be a "third Bush term." That's a smart campaign slogan for Democrats, and it should be effective.

But anyone who knows McCain and has followed his efforts over the years - including his 2000 campaign against George W. Bush - knows that, if the Arizonan gets to the White House, he'll follow his own instincts, not the current president's road map.

I can't disagree with one Republican operative from California who argued cogently recently that McCain would likely try to govern as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a nominal Republican, has.

Although the Governator has managed to stop some of the stupidity proposed by Dem state legislators, it's clear that he's lost the desire to fight the idiocy and today is more likely to go along with the Dems than oppose them. I doubt if McCain even tries to oppose the Dems. He'll start out with the premise that it's better to come up with some sort of "bipartisan" approach to everything rather than hold out for a good solution. Conservatives will be shunted aside and we'll get saddled with every kind of bad policy just so everybody can hold hands and claim that they're "working together for America".

Rothenberg discusses the upcoming war between McCain moderates and other conservatives in apocalyptic terms, but frankly, it's a battle that needs to be fought.

I do agree that the next four years will be full of problems for the president, whether McCain or Obama. The question becomes this: Who do you want to get the blame? The president's party always gets the blame even if he is stuck with an opposition Congress, so if things are going to go downhill in the next four years, maybe it would be better to let the Dems take the hit.