McCain Up 4 in Poll of Likely Voters

Much of the polling you see in the media these days is done among "registered" voters (such as the current Gallup poll showing Obama with a 9 point lead). Since roughly half of the registered voters will not show up on election day, those numbers are always suspect. A better poll is one that has been screened to "likely" voters - people who have a history of voting and are likely to show up in November. The latest USATODAYGALLUP poll of likely voters has some good news for McCain:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

I'm not sure if the Obamessiah's World Apology Tour is figured into these numbers, but the fact that despite all the fawning Obama press attention McCain is anywhere near Obama is nothing short of a small miracle.