Adventures in Polling

Do you want a poll to show a sudden surge for Obama? Try taking it on a Sunday:

Survey USA has a poll that is sure to make the rounds (if it hasn’t already): it has Obama up 4, a six point shift from its last poll.

The idea that the race can shift that quickly in one week surprised me, especially since it was supposedly men and older voters that led the shift, and that Obama gained in every region except Northern Virginia.

So, I took a look at the demographics, and lo, the change became obvious: the “new” poll had a six-point drop in conservative voters, four-point drop in regular churchgoers, and a five point drop in pro-lifers.

I don’t see that happening in a week, do you?

This is what happens when you poll on Sunday.

Yep. Church goin' folk are going to be sitting around on Sunday waiting for pollsters to call. And as a group, conservatives tend to be out doing more stuff with their families on weekends than do liberals (that's not an opinion - pollsters have found that issue before with weekend polls).

There's enough volatility in this election without injecting false movement with bad polling.