The Poll to Watch

The most accurate poll in 2004 was the IBD/TIPP poll, and it's one of the outliers in this year's election because it has shown a very close race, as opposed to many others that show wide margins. The IBD poll currently has Obama up by only 2.9 points at only 47%.

Don Surber looks at the IBD methodology and thinks he knows why this poll may be more accurate than others:

IBD has his lead is 2.9% and he is far from topping 50%. At 47.0%, Obama has yet to seal the deal.

Everyone else has Obama over 50 with about half the undecideds that IBD has.

So the IBD poll is off, right?

Maybe not. Let us review its demographic breakdowns..

Region? Check.

Age? Check.

Sex? Check.

Income? Check.

Education? Check.

Party? Check.

Religion? Check.

What is missing from this list of categories?

Race.

Maybe IBD asked the question, maybe not. But no racial breakdown is included and given the disclosures of all these demographics — whether the person displays the flag — I have to conclude IBD is not asking race.

And maybe without asking about race, maybe the IBD poll is getting a little bit more honest answers. Maybe some people don’t want to admit they are not sure — are not yet sold on Obama — but don’t want to admit that because if black, they don’t want to be disloyal to their race, and if white, they don’t want to look racist.

Could it be that because IBD isn't focusing on race as others are they've taken the "Bradley Effect" out of the equation? I tend to believe the race is closer than many of the polls would suggest, and if Obama is still under 50% with lots of undecideds, the race is far from over.